If anyone ever asks me what I know about the stock market I’ll probably just blink a couple of times, smile wide, then walk away. If however, someone asks me about my opinion on video game sales I’m likely to talk their ears off until they smile wide and walk away. Luckily for people like [...]
If anyone ever asks me what I know about the stock market I’ll probably just blink a couple of times, smile wide, then walk away. If however, someone asks me about my opinion on video game sales I’m likely to talk their ears off until they smile wide and walk away.
Luckily for people like me, the internet has spawned yet another reason for us to avoid that crazy place we call the real world. It’s called the simExchange, an online prediction market that centers around the real world sales numbers of video games.
Unlike most other prediction markets the simExchange uses a stock market-like system in which you use virtual play money (called DKP) to buy stocks in games that are “under priced” then sell them at a higher price. The price in this case is the amount of copies a particular video game will sell in its lifetime as predicted by simExchange users (at a rate of one DKP per ten thousand units sold). Thus a game’s value increases when you buy into it and decreases if you sell. Every user starts out with one million DKP and it’s your job to turn it into an even bigger pile of cash. Don’t worry if you have absolutely no experience in this kind of thing as the mechanics are simplified enough for even someone as inept as me to manage. And if you do screw up royally you need not worry about losing your shirt –virtual or otherwise.
To aid you in your struggle to the top of the leaderboard the people behind the simExchange have built a rather impressive infrastructure. In many ways the simExchange epitomizes the Web 2.0 movement as nearly everything on the site is either user-submitted or rateable. To give you an incentive to submit news, videos, or thought-provoking comments additional DKP is awarded for submitted material that is well liked by the community. In this way, you can help yourself while at the same time helping the community; certainly a clever setup.
The simExchange is particularly enjoyable to gamers perhaps because it feels so much like a game. Of course another part of its appeal is that it’s all about video games, but at a deeper level the simExchange is a game in itself. It is a competitive journey to the top but without all the responsibilities and consequences that come with the same kind of journey in the real world. Traditional action gamers that crave a continuous stream of high intensity gaming may not enjoy the simExchange, but those people that enjoy games at a slightly slower pace are sure to find enjoyment. If nothing else it’s a great time sink for those boring days at work.
But does It work? Although there is a certain group of people who are content with just playing the simExchange “game” others –especially real world investors– want to know just how accurate it is. Does the data the simExchange gathers at all reflect real sales data or is it little more than a fun diversion? In a word, maybe. Both this article from TheStreet.com and the simExchange’s own blog are enthusiastic about the possibilities, but it’s important to realize the limitations of data obtained from the simExchange and thus maintain a level of caution.
The simExchange uses the “Wisdom of Crowds” to gather its data, but is a crowd of five thousand gamers, each with average knowledge of the games industry really any wiser than one well-informed professional analyst? I can not even begin to answer that question, although I can say that any prediction of the future is by default imperfect, so much so that market analysts are often jokingly referred to as soothsayers. From this perspective I can say that the simExchange’s predictions are no worse than anything any other group or person can form, but at the same time probably no better.
If you use the simExchange, let us know your thoughts on the site.
(By) Abraham Kurp was introduced to open source software a few years ago and it was love at first site. When not preaching the virtues of open source he enjoys reading classic science fiction, playing obscure video games, dabbling in programming, and of course writing.
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